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Walter Ferretti vs UNAN Managua — Primera Division 2026

Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
7/18/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Walter Ferretti57%
×Draw22%
UNAN Managua21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walter Ferretti
1.89
UNAN Managua
1.04

Walter Ferretti creates 82% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 93 away

creates per match

Walter Ferretti
1.80
UNAN Managua
1.08

allows per match

Walter Ferretti
1.01
UNAN Managua
1.98

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par
UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

UNAN Managua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw
79%
Walter Ferretti or UNAN Managua
78%
Draw or UNAN Managua
43%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
33%
UNAN Managua wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
85%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
56%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
29%
UNAN Managua 1+ goals
65%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
28%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
74%
UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.80 + UNAN Managua defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.89

UNAN Managua attack 1.08 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more
57%
level
22%
UNAN Managua scores more
21%

Walter Ferretti at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Walter Ferretti vs UNAN Managua

Walter Ferretti beat UNAN Managua 3-0 in Primera Division on July 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in San Marcos.