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Walter Ferretti vs Orgánica Masachapa — Primera Division 2026

Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
11/8/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Walter Ferretti64%
×Draw20%
Orgánica Masachapa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walter Ferretti
2.12
Orgánica Masachapa
0.95

Walter Ferretti creates 123% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 18 away

creates per match

Walter Ferretti
1.80
Orgánica Masachapa
0.89

allows per match

Walter Ferretti
1.01
Orgánica Masachapa
2.44

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par
Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw
84%
Walter Ferretti or Orgánica Masachapa
80%
Draw or Orgánica Masachapa
36%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
40%
Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
88%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
62%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
35%
Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
61%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
25%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
80%
Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.80 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more
64%
level
20%
Orgánica Masachapa scores more
16%

Walter Ferretti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Walter Ferretti vs Orgánica Masachapa

Walter Ferretti and Orgánica Masachapa drew 1-1 in Primera Division on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.