Walter Ferretti 0–0 Matagalpa: Result & Stats

Walter Ferretti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Matagalpa

4/8/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - 15Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Walter Ferretti53%

×Draw24%

Matagalpa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Walter FerrettiExpected goals in this matchMatagalpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Walter Ferretti

1.75

Matagalpa

1.08

Walter Ferretti creates 62% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 78 away

1.81

creates per match

1.15

1.01

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Walter Ferretti

1.81

Matagalpa

1.15

allows per match

Walter Ferretti

1.01

Matagalpa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Matagalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Matagalpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw

77%

Walter Ferretti or Matagalpa

76%

Draw or Matagalpa

47%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

29%

Matagalpa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

83%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

52%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

25%

Matagalpa 1+ goals

66%

Matagalpa 2+ goals

29%

Matagalpa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

69%

Matagalpa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 142 matches

Matagalpa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.81 + Matagalpa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Matagalpa attack 1.15 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more

53%

level

24%

Matagalpa scores more

23%

Walter Ferretti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff