Walter Ferretti 2–0 Jalapa: Result & Stats

Walter Ferretti

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jalapa

2/3/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 3Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Walter Ferretti60%

×Draw22%

Jalapa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Walter FerrettiExpected goals in this matchJalapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.96

Walter Ferretti

1.94

Jalapa

0.96

Walter Ferretti creates 102% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 131 away

1.80

creates per match

0.91

1.01

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Walter Ferretti

1.80

Jalapa

0.91

allows per match

Walter Ferretti

1.01

Jalapa

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Jalapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw

82%

Walter Ferretti or Jalapa

78%

Draw or Jalapa

40%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

36%

Jalapa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

86%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

58%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

30%

Jalapa 1+ goals

62%

Jalapa 2+ goals

25%

Jalapa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

77%

Jalapa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.08 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.80 + Jalapa defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more

60%

level

22%

Jalapa scores more

18%

Walter Ferretti at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff