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Jalapa vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

Jalapa
Jalapaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
4/29/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Jalapa46%
×Draw28%
Walter Ferretti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jalapa
1.33
Walter Ferretti
0.91

Jalapa creates 46% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 137 away

creates per match

Jalapa
1.30
Walter Ferretti
1.03

allows per match

Jalapa
0.79
Walter Ferretti
1.35

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par
Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Walter Ferretti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw
74%
Jalapa or Walter Ferretti
72%
Draw or Walter Ferretti
54%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+
22%
Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals
74%
Jalapa 2+ goals
38%
Jalapa 3+ goals
15%
Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
60%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
23%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)
64%
Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jalapa scores more
46%
level
28%
Walter Ferretti scores more
26%

Jalapa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Jalapa 3–0 Walter Ferretti

Jalapa beat Walter Ferretti 3-0 in Primera Division on April 29, 2026.