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Walter Ferretti vs Diriangén — Primera Division 2026

Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Diriangén
Diriangén
3/11/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 8Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Walter Ferretti40%
×Draw26%
Diriangén35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walter Ferretti
1.42
Diriangén
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 150 away

creates per match

Walter Ferretti
1.80
Diriangén
1.61

allows per match

Walter Ferretti
1.01
Diriangén
1.04

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par
Diriangén+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Diriangén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw
65%
Walter Ferretti or Diriangén
74%
Draw or Diriangén
60%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
19%
Diriangén wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
76%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
41%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
17%
Diriangén 1+ goals
73%
Diriangén 2+ goals
38%
Diriangén 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
53%
Diriangén (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

Diriangén away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.80 + Diriangén defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.42

Diriangén attack 1.61 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more
40%
level
26%
Diriangén scores more
35%

Walter Ferretti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Walter Ferretti vs Diriangén

Walter Ferretti beat Diriangén 1-0 in Primera Division on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.