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Diriangén vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

Diriangén
Diriangén
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
2/3/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Diriangén59%
×Draw23%
Walter Ferretti18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diriangén
1.77
Walter Ferretti
0.86

Diriangén creates 106% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 137 away

creates per match

Diriangén
2.19
Walter Ferretti
1.03

allows per match

Diriangén
0.70
Walter Ferretti
1.35

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par
Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Walter Ferretti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw
82%
Diriangén or Walter Ferretti
77%
Draw or Walter Ferretti
41%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+
33%
Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals
83%
Diriangén 2+ goals
53%
Diriangén 3+ goals
26%
Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
58%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
21%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)
77%
Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Diriangén scores more
59%
level
23%
Walter Ferretti scores more
18%

Diriangén at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diriangén vs Walter Ferretti

Diriangén beat Walter Ferretti 3-1 in Primera Division on February 3, 2026.