Walter Ferretti 2–2 Deportivo Ocotal

Walter Ferretti

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportivo Ocotal

A. Bonilla 79' (pen)

B. Montiel 10'

A. Medina 34'

Y. Arenas 26'

4/20/2023

Primera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Walter Ferretti64%

×Draw20%

Deportivo Ocotal16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Walter FerrettiExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Ocotal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.92

Walter Ferretti

2.08

Deportivo Ocotal

0.92

Walter Ferretti creates 126% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 108 away

1.81

creates per match

0.83

1.01

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Walter Ferretti

1.81

Deportivo Ocotal

0.83

allows per match

Walter Ferretti

1.01

Deportivo Ocotal

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw

84%

Walter Ferretti or Deportivo Ocotal

80%

Draw or Deportivo Ocotal

36%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

40%

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

87%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

61%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

34%

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

80%

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 142 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.36 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.81 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.83 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more

64%

level

20%

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

16%

Walter Ferretti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Montiel

26'

Y. Arenas

34'

A. Medina

46'

J. Moncada← B. Hernández

59'

C. Gómez← R. Molina

65'

F. Ramos← C. Vente

73'

H. Calero← R. López

73'

R. Espinoza← Y. Arenas

74'

J. Mairena← N. Cuadra

79'

A. BonillaPenalty

Walter

Deportivo

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: L. Díaz

46'▲J. Moncada←▼B. Hernández

65'▲F. Ramos←▼C. Vente

73'▲H. Calero←▼R. López

Walter Ferretti substitutes

MoncadaRamosCaleroSomarribaCerpaZúñigaCastilloMoralesCáceres

Manager: S. López

59'▲C. Gómez←▼R. Molina

73'▲R. Espinoza←▼Y. Arenas

74'▲J. Mairena←▼N. Cuadra

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

GómezEspinozaMairenaPérezCholesFernándezAgurcia