Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Ocotal vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
3/31/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 14Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal42%
×Draw28%
Walter Ferretti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Ocotal
1.27
Walter Ferretti
1.04

Deportivo Ocotal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 137 away

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.20
Walter Ferretti
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.04
Walter Ferretti
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par
Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Walter Ferretti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw
70%
Deportivo Ocotal or Walter Ferretti
72%
Draw or Walter Ferretti
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
19%
Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
14%
Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
65%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
28%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
58%
Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.20 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more
42%
level
28%
Walter Ferretti scores more
30%

Deportivo Ocotal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Ocotal vs Walter Ferretti

Deportivo Ocotal and Walter Ferretti drew 2-2 in Primera Division on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez in Ocotal.