Walter Ferretti 0–0 Chinandega: Result & Stats

Walter Ferretti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chinandega

1/29/2018

Primera Division · Clausura - 2Estadio Nacional de Fútbol (UNAN) (Managua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Walter Ferretti62%

×Draw22%

Chinandega16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Walter FerrettiExpected goals in this matchChinandega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.86

Walter Ferretti

1.92

Chinandega

0.86

Walter Ferretti creates 123% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 37 away

1.82

creates per match

0.70

1.02

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Walter Ferretti

1.82

Chinandega

0.70

allows per match

Walter Ferretti

1.02

Chinandega

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Chinandega+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Chinandega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw

84%

Walter Ferretti or Chinandega

78%

Draw or Chinandega

38%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

37%

Chinandega wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

85%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

57%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

30%

Chinandega 1+ goals

58%

Chinandega 2+ goals

21%

Chinandega 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

79%

Chinandega (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.02 · 141 matches

Chinandega away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.03 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.82 + Chinandega defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Chinandega attack 0.70 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more

62%

level

22%

Chinandega scores more

16%

Walter Ferretti at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

73'

82'

87'

Walter

Chinandega

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Flavio Rego

73'▲N. Cuadra←▼A. Tapia

82'▲J. Lopez←▼M. Méndez

87'▲C. Flores←▼Y. Rivera

Walter Ferretti substitutes

CuadraLopezFloresRamirezCastellonMendozaVanegas

Manager: R. Espinoza

70'▲L. Bonilla←▼P. Ruiz

Chinandega substitutes

BonillaVegaMartinezOlivaresCamposCardenasLeguías