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Chinandega vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

Chinandega
Chinandega
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
9/20/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 9Estadio La Veranera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Chinandega38%
×Draw26%
Walter Ferretti36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chinandega
1.37
Walter Ferretti
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 138 away

creates per match

Chinandega
1.39
Walter Ferretti
1.02

allows per match

Chinandega
1.67
Walter Ferretti
1.35

finishing

Chinandega+0.00on par
Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinandega ↓

Walter Ferretti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chinandega or draw
64%
Chinandega or Walter Ferretti
74%
Draw or Walter Ferretti
62%

Winning margin

Chinandega wins by 2+
17%
Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chinandega 1+ goals
75%
Chinandega 2+ goals
40%
Chinandega 3+ goals
16%
Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
74%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
39%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chinandega (draw refunded)
51%
Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinandega at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinandega attack 1.39 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Walter Ferretti attack 1.02 + Chinandega defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chinandega scores more
38%
level
26%
Walter Ferretti scores more
36%

Chinandega at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chinandega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Chinandega 2–2 Walter Ferretti

Chinandega and Walter Ferretti drew 2-2 in Primera Division on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Veranera in La Veranera.