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Walsall vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Bescot Stadium
Big match
37%
Walsall
model favours
37%30%33%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall37%
×Draw30%
Shrewsbury33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.09
Shrewsbury
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Shrewsbury-0.05on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
67%
Walsall or Shrewsbury
70%
Draw or Shrewsbury
63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
66%
Walsall 2+ goals
30%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
63%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
26%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
53%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more
37%
level
30%
Shrewsbury scores more
33%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession44%
63%Pass accuracy61%
11.4Shots11.6
1.41xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallShrewsbury

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Walsall
3
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 1.2BTTS: 40%
2–11–11–00–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Walsall vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Walsall face Shrewsbury on December 19, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Walsall host Shrewsbury at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.