Walsall 1–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

D. Kanu 3'

T. Anderson 65'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 20Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%

×Draw30%

Shrewsbury34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.04

Walsall

1.09

Shrewsbury

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.02

creates per match

0.74

1.34

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Walsall

1.02

Shrewsbury

0.74

allows per match

Walsall

1.34

Shrewsbury

1.17

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.02on par

Shrewsbury-0.05on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

66%

Walsall or Shrewsbury

70%

Draw or Shrewsbury

64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

66%

Walsall 2+ goals

30%

Walsall 3+ goals

10%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

65%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

28%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

52%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.02 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Walsall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Walsall scores more

36%

level

30%

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

Walsall at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

T. Anderson

Shrewsbury · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

D. Kanu↳ E. Weir

35'

Taylor Perry

58'

Ismeal Kabia

65'

T. Anderson↳ G. Lloyd

69'

J. Jellis← R. Finnigan

69'

A. Adomah← J. Matt

83'

R. Richards← D. Kanu

83'

T. McDermott← T. Perry

85'

Tommy McDermott

86'

Jamie Jellis

90+4'

Tom Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallShrewsbury

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots10

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.83

5Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

6Off Target2

2Blocked4

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

268Total Passes424

156Accurate Passes303

58%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0