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Walsall vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
CANC
00:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
4/10/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Walsall34%
×Draw27%
Plymouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.17
Plymouth
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 24 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
61%
Walsall or Plymouth
73%
Draw or Plymouth
66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%
Plymouth 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
47%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more
34%
level
27%
Plymouth scores more
39%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Walsall host Plymouth

April 10, 2020: Walsall take on Plymouth in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Walsall host Plymouth at Banks's Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.