Walsall 1–1 Newport County: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Newport County

I. Hutchinson 32'

C. Norman 78'

2/18/2023

League Two · Round 33Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall47%

×Draw25%

Newport County28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.16

Walsall

1.57

Newport County

1.16

Walsall creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.01

creates per match

1.05

1.27

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Newport County

1.05

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Newport County

2.13

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

72%

Walsall or Newport County

75%

Draw or Newport County

53%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

24%

Newport County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

79%

Walsall 2+ goals

46%

Walsall 3+ goals

21%

Newport County 1+ goals

69%

Newport County 2+ goals

32%

Newport County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

62%

Newport County (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Newport County attack 1.05 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Walsall scores more

47%

level

25%

Newport County scores more

28%

Walsall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Hutchinson

Walsall · M

7.5

Match Events

21'

Harry Charsley

32'

I. Hutchinson

34'

Tom Knowles

46'

M. Baker← C. Kavanagh

46'

O. Zanzala← H. Charsley

46'

46'

55'

68'

68'

D. James-Taylor← M. Stevens

71'

78'

82'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallNewport

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots9

4Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target2

0Off Target4

4Blocked3

4Inside Box2

5Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

296Total Passes270

180Accurate Passes141

61%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4