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Newport County vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Walsall
Walsall
11/8/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Newport County40%
×Draw27%
Walsall33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.33
Walsall
1.17

Newport County creates 14% more chances

Season form · 184 home / 157 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.34
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Newport County
1.20
Walsall
1.32

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
67%
Newport County or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
60%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
18%
Walsall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
74%
Newport County 2+ goals
38%
Newport County 3+ goals
15%
Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
55%
Walsall (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Walsall attack 1.13 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newport County scores more
40%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
33%

Newport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newport County vs Walsall

Walsall beat Newport County 4-2 in League Two on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Rodney Parade in Newport.