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Walsall vs Macclesfield — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
W. McDonald 74'
M. Welch-Hayes 8'
12/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Walsall51%
×Draw26%
Macclesfield24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.54
Macclesfield
0.96

Walsall creates 60% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 18 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Macclesfield
0.72

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Macclesfield
1.78

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
76%
Walsall or Macclesfield
74%
Draw or Macclesfield
49%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
26%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
45%
Walsall 3+ goals
20%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
62%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
25%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
68%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Walsall scores more
51%
level
26%
Macclesfield scores more
24%

Walsall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
O. EvansMacclesfieldMacclesfield · G
8.3

Match Events

8'
M. Welch-Hayes↳ A. Gnahoua
11'
Owen Evans
22'
Arthur Gnahoua
46'
C. Pring← S. Facey
68'
E. Adebayo← L. Kinsella
74'
W. McDonald↳ C. Pring
80'
J. Ironside← A. Gnahoua
83'
Josh Gordon
84'
R. Gaffney← C. Lavery

Possession

62%Walsall

Shots

24Walsall

Pass accuracy

57%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallMacclesfield
Overview
62%Possession38%
24Total Shots13
13Corners2
14Fouls15
Shots
24Total Shots13
9On Target3
4Off Target6
11Blocked4
18Inside Box6
6Outside Box7
Passing
62%Possession38%
482Total Passes304
375Accurate Passes177
78%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
14Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Macclesfield

Walsall and Macclesfield drew 1-1 in League Two on December 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Welch-Hayes (8'), W. McDonald (74').

Walsall controlled possession (62%) and registered 24 shots to 13.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.