Walsall 1–3 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Grimsby

E. Harrison 6'

J. Luker 66', 21'

D. Rose 44' (pen)

3/8/2025

League Two · Round 36Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Walsall41%

×Draw27%

Grimsby32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.16

Walsall

1.35

Grimsby

1.16

Walsall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 158 away

1.30

creates per match

1.11

1.20

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Walsall

1.30

Grimsby

1.11

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Grimsby

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

68%

Walsall or Grimsby

73%

Draw or Grimsby

59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Grimsby wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

74%

Walsall 2+ goals

39%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Grimsby 1+ goals

69%

Grimsby 2+ goals

32%

Grimsby 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

56%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.30 + Grimsby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Grimsby attack 1.11 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

41%

level

27%

Grimsby scores more

32%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Luker

Grimsby · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

E. Harrison↳ A. Adomah

21'

J. Luker↳ J. Svanþórsson

29'

Ryan Stirk

40'

T. Warren← L. Cass

44'

D. RosePenalty

45+2'

46'

46'

63'

66'

66'

67'

D. Johnson← E. Harrison

67'

E. Weir← J. Jellis

67'

B. Comley← R. Stirk

70'

C. Thompson← G. McEachran

75'

Jason Daði Svanþórsson

82'

L. Barrington← J. Luker

83'

D. Burns← K. Green

83'

C. Ainley← J. Svanþórsson

85'

Connor Barrett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGrimsby

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots10

8Corners2

21Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots10

2On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

247Total Passes348

125Accurate Passes226

51%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 1–3 Grimsby

Grimsby beat Walsall 3-1 in League Two on March 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Harrison (6'), J. Luker (21', 66'), D. Rose (44' pen).

Grimsby controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Walsall 1–3 Grimsby