Walsall 1–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grimsby

R. Stirk 81'

Abobaker Eisa 52'

8/26/2023

League Two · Round 5Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall28%

×Draw26%

Grimsby46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.45

Walsall

1.06

Grimsby

1.45

Grimsby creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.01

creates per match

1.62

1.27

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Grimsby

1.62

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Grimsby

1.11

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

54%

Walsall or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

72%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Grimsby wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

65%

Walsall 2+ goals

29%

Walsall 3+ goals

9%

Grimsby 1+ goals

77%

Grimsby 2+ goals

42%

Grimsby 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

38%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more

28%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

46%

Grimsby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Eastwood

Grimsby · G

7.9

Match Events

7'

Danny Rose

9'

Chris Hussey

41'

Harvey Rodgers

52'

Abobaker Eisa↳ H. Clifton

59'

71'

75'

81'

88'

89'

90+6'

90+2'

90+2'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGrimsby

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots11

8Corners10

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box6

8Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

215Total Passes419

135Accurate Passes329

63%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Walsall vs Grimsby

Walsall and Grimsby drew 1-1 in League Two on August 26, 2023.

Goals: Abobaker Eisa (52'), R. Stirk (81').

Grimsby controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Walsall vs Grimsby