Walsall 1–2 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Grimsby

D. Johnson 5'

H. Clifton 82', 77'

8/27/2022

League Two · Round 6Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall28%

×Draw26%

Grimsby46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.45

Walsall

1.06

Grimsby

1.45

Grimsby creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.01

creates per match

1.62

1.27

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Grimsby

1.62

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Grimsby

1.11

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

54%

Walsall or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

72%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Grimsby wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

65%

Walsall 2+ goals

29%

Walsall 3+ goals

9%

Grimsby 1+ goals

77%

Grimsby 2+ goals

42%

Grimsby 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

38%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more

28%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

46%

Grimsby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

H. Clifton

Grimsby · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

D. Johnson↳ T. Knowles

22'

46'

60'

65'

76'

A. Williams← J. Earing

77'

H. Clifton↳ A. Pepple

81'

D. Orsi← R. Taylor

82'

H. Clifton↳ D. Orsi

86'

R. Maher← B. Comley

87'

I. Hutchinson← T. Knowles

87'

T. Abraham← T. Allen

90+6'

Aribim Pepple

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGrimsby

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots8

4Corners2

3Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots8

8On Target3

6Off Target2

1Blocked3

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

268Total Passes389

152Accurate Passes263

57%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

3Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3