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Walsall vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
E. Adebayo 60'
9/12/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall28%
×Draw26%
Grimsby46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.06
Grimsby
1.45

Grimsby creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Grimsby
1.62

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Grimsby
1.11

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
54%
Walsall or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
72%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
10%
Grimsby wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
65%
Walsall 2+ goals
29%
Walsall 3+ goals
9%
Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
42%
Grimsby 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
38%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more
28%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
46%

Grimsby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. PrestonGrimsbyGrimsby · D
7.7

Match Events

43'
Owura Edwards
44'
Callum Cockerill-Mollett
60'
E. Adebayo↳ C. Norman
66'
C. Lavery← E. Adebayo
66'
E. Osadebe← R. Holden
69'
Duncan Idehen
70'
M. Gibson← M. Green
70'
L. Boyd← D. Rose
78'
J. Tilley← G. Williams
81'
S. Sinclair← A. Bates

Possession

41%Walsall

Shots

16Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallGrimsby
Overview
41%Possession59%
16Total Shots12
8Corners4
20Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots12
7On Target3
7Off Target5
2Blocked4
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
300Total Passes439
195Accurate Passes336
65%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 1–0 Grimsby

Walsall beat Grimsby 1-0 in League Two on September 12, 2020.

Goals: E. Adebayo (60').

Grimsby controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.