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Walsall vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
L. Amantchi 1 90+11'
E. Harrison 55'
J. Matt 52'
J. Grimes 8'
2/15/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall37%
×Draw26%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.31
Chesterfield
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.06
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Walsall
1.39
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
63%
Walsall or Chesterfield
74%
Draw or Chesterfield
63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
73%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
37%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
50%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more
37%
level
26%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
D. OkagbueWalsallWalsall · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
J. Grimes↳ D. Duffy
31'
Max Thompson
37'
Harry Williams
49'
O. McEntee← H. Williams
52'
J. Matt↳ D. Okagbue
55'
Armando Dobra
55'
E. Harrison↳ T. Allen
76'
A. Adomah← E. Harrison
76'
B. Comley← C. Lakin
76'
L. Amantchi← J. Matt
77'
P. Madden← A. Pepple
77'
R. Colclough← D. Duffy
78'
Jamie Jellis
84'
J. Metcalfe← T. Naylor
84'
O. Banks← D. Oldaker
89'
L. Mandeville← M. Olakigbe
90+2'
E. Weir← C. Barrett
90+11'
L. Amantchi 1↳ E. Weir

Possession

38%Walsall

Shots

8Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallChesterfield
Overview
38%Possession62%
8Total Shots8
6Corners3
15Fouls5
Shots
8Total Shots8
3On Target2
1Off Target1
4Blocked5
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
302Total Passes499
205Accurate Passes396
68%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 3–1 Chesterfield

Walsall beat Chesterfield 3-1 in League Two on February 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Grimes (8'), J. Matt (52'), E. Harrison (55'), L. Amantchi 1 (90+11').

Chesterfield controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.