Walsall 0–2 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Walsall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Charlton

K. Bielik 51'

L. Taylor 6' (pen)

11/6/2018

League One · Round 13Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Walsall32%

×Draw27%

Charlton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.33

Walsall

1.16

Charlton

1.33

Charlton creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 143 away

1.07

creates per match

1.22

1.45

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Walsall

1.07

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Walsall

1.45

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

59%

Walsall or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

68%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

13%

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

69%

Walsall 2+ goals

32%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Charlton 1+ goals

74%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

44%

Charlton (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.07 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Charlton attack 1.22 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

32%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

41%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

L. TaylorPenalty

24'

Josh Cullen

34'

K. Ahearne-Grant← Vetokele

42'

Luke Leahy

46'

L. Kinsella← I. Osbourne

49'

51'

73'

75'

80'

G. Lapslie← J. Cullen

82'

M. Marshall← T. Fosu

85'

C. Ronan← J. Ginnelly

Walsall

Charlton

21

6

20

23

15

4

⚽

Bielik

11

▼

Fosu

17

Aribo

24

▼

Cullen

9

⚽

Taylor

14

▼

1

34

6

3

5

30

▼

Osbourne

4

Dobson

11

▼

Ginnelly

9

Cook

16

Ferrier

29

▼

Gordon

Manager: D. Keates

46'▲L. Kinsella←▼I. Osbourne

75'▲Z. Ismail←▼J. Gordon

85'▲C. Ronan←▼J. Ginnelly

Walsall substitutes

15Kinsella10Ismail31Ronan8Morris13Dunn20Johnson28Wilson

Manager: L. Bowyer

34'▲K. Ahearne-Grant←▼Vetokele

80'▲G. Lapslie←▼J. Cullen

82'▲M. Marshall←▼T. Fosu

Charlton substitutes

18Ahearne-Grant32Lapslie7Marshall1Phillips16Ward25Ajose43Stevenson