Walsall 0–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

4/10/2023

League Two · Round 41Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Walsall41%

×Draw27%

Carlisle32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Walsall

1.32

Carlisle

1.14

Walsall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 115 away

1.29

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

68%

Walsall or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Carlisle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

73%

Walsall 2+ goals

38%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Carlisle 1+ goals

68%

Carlisle 2+ goals

32%

Carlisle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

56%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

41%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

32%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

O. Evans

Walsall · G

7.7

Match Events

22'

38'

39'

43'

61'

65'

J. Labadie← I. Hutchinson

65'

A. Williams← C. Wilkinson

65'

J. Riley← J. Matt

72'

J. Devitt← O. Patrick

72'

R. Edmondson← C. Guy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCarlisle

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots12

4Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target3

2Off Target6

3Blocked3

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

275Total Passes331

140Accurate Passes206

51%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2