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Walsall vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
E. Adebayo 70'
H. McKirdy 90+4'
N. Thomas 52'
12/29/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Walsall41%
×Draw27%
Carlisle32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.32
Carlisle
1.14

Walsall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 115 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Carlisle
1.07

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Carlisle
1.35

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
68%
Walsall or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
19%
Carlisle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%
Carlisle 1+ goals
68%
Carlisle 2+ goals
32%
Carlisle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
56%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more
41%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
32%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
N. ThomasCarlisleCarlisle · F
8.6

Match Events

46'
R. Loft← S. Scougall
48'
Aaron Hayden
52'
N. Thomas
66'
E. Adebayo← C. Lavery
66'
J. Hardy← R. Holden
70'
E. Adebayo
77'
James Clarke
78'
Z. Jules← E. Adebayo
84'
Callum Cockerill-Mollett
90+5'
O. Olomola← N. Thomas
90+4'
H. McKirdy↳ A. Hayden

Possession

55%Walsall

Shots

15Walsall

Pass accuracy

51%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallCarlisle
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots18
9Corners2
12Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots18
5On Target7
6Off Target6
4Blocked5
11Inside Box11
4Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
381Total Passes322
263Accurate Passes211
69%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Walsall vs Carlisle

Carlisle beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on December 29, 2019.

Goals: N. Thomas (52'), E. Adebayo (70'), H. McKirdy (90+4').

Walsall controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.