Walsall 0–0 Bradford: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bradford

3/7/2023

League Two · Round 29Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Walsall39%

×Draw27%

Bradford34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Walsall

1.27

Bradford

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 139 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

66%

Walsall or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

61%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

17%

Bradford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Bradford 1+ goals

69%

Bradford 2+ goals

33%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

53%

Bradford (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bradford attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more

39%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

34%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Lewis

Bradford · G

8.0

Match Events

61'

Sam Stubbs

69'

Brad Halliday

75'

L. Kinsella← J. Maddox

75'

R. East← A. Gilliead

75'

S. Banks← A. Clayton

78'

D. James-Taylor← C. Wilkinson

87'

Richard Smallwood

87'

R. Crichlow-Noble← D. Costelloe

90'

Donervon Daniels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallBradford

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots10

5Corners1

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target0

3Off Target7

4Blocked3

4Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

322Total Passes388

200Accurate Passes262

62%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1