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Walsall vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bradford
Bradford
D. Scarr 77'
A. Cook 66'
L. Sutton 43'
2/27/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Walsall39%
×Draw27%
Bradford34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.27
Bradford
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 139 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
66%
Walsall or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
61%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Bradford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Bradford 1+ goals
69%
Bradford 2+ goals
33%
Bradford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
53%
Bradford (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bradford attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more
39%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
34%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. SuttonBradfordBradford · M
8.7

Match Events

4'
Sam Perry
19'
Paudie O’Connor
43'
L. Sutton↳ O. Crankshaw
53'
Hayden White
57'
C. Lavery← D. Osei Yaw
64'
C. Norman← C. Cockerill-Mollett
64'
F. Vincent← S. Perry
66'
A. Cook↳ L. Sutton
69'
Josh Gordon
72'
B. Clarke← C. Cooke
72'
D. Rowe← A. Cook
77'
D. Scarr↳ C. Norman
87'
J. Stevens← C. Vernam
88'
C. Donaldson← O. Crankshaw

Possession

54%Walsall

Shots

7Walsall

Pass accuracy

50%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallBradford
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots10
7Corners2
17Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots10
1On Target6
3Off Target4
3Blocked0
5Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
450Total Passes389
329Accurate Passes284
73%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League Two: Walsall 1–2 Bradford

Bradford beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on February 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Sutton (43'), A. Cook (66'), D. Scarr (77').

Walsall controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.