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Walsall vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
L. Kinsella 83' (OG)
9/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Walsall39%
×Draw27%
Bradford34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.27
Bradford
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 139 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
66%
Walsall or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
61%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Bradford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Bradford 1+ goals
69%
Bradford 2+ goals
33%
Bradford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
53%
Bradford (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bradford attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more
39%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
34%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. O'DonnellBradfordBradford · G
8.4

Match Events

10'
Zak Jules
29'
Kelvin Mellor
56'
C. Cockerill-Mollett← Z. Jules
63'
J. Hardy← R. Holden
63'
C. Cooke← D. Devine
65'
S. McCartan← D. Connolly
78'
J. Gordon← C. Lavery
83'
L. KinsellaOwn goal

Possession

60%Walsall

Shots

19Walsall

Pass accuracy

55%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallBradford
Overview
60%Possession40%
19Total Shots11
2Corners6
11Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target4
7Off Target5
6Blocked2
8Inside Box7
11Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
434Total Passes281
305Accurate Passes162
70%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Walsall vs Bradford

Bradford beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on September 14, 2019.

Goals: L. Kinsella (83' o.g.).

Walsall controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.