Walsall 0–1 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barrow

B. Waters 22'

3/4/2023

League Two · Round 35Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Walsall46%

×Draw26%

Barrow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.07

Walsall

1.46

Barrow

1.07

Walsall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.01

creates per match

0.87

1.27

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Barrow

1.91

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

72%

Walsall or Barrow

74%

Draw or Barrow

54%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

23%

Barrow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

77%

Walsall 2+ goals

43%

Walsall 3+ goals

18%

Barrow 1+ goals

66%

Barrow 2+ goals

29%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

62%

Barrow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barrow attack 0.87 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more

46%

level

26%

Barrow scores more

28%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Farman

Barrow · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

B. Waters↳ B. Whitfield

34'

R. Willmott← O. McEntee

34'

J. Maddox← L. Kinsella

39'

Jake Young

46'

C. Wilkinson← M. Stevens

46'

L. Gordon← T. Allen

54'

A. Williams← R. Willmott

56'

65'

65'

66'

72'

81'

H. Neal← B. Whitfield

90+2'

Jacob Maddox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallBarrow

Overview

69%Possession31%

11Total Shots9

2Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target5

5Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

479Total Passes214

355Accurate Passes107

74%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1