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Barrow vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Walsall
Walsall
J. Malcolm 88'
M. Hancock 68', 45'
A. Adomah 33'
4/18/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow24%
×Draw25%
Walsall51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.00
Walsall
1.58

Walsall creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
49%
Barrow or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
76%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
9%
Walsall wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
63%
Barrow 2+ goals
26%
Barrow 3+ goals
8%
Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
47%
Walsall 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
32%
Walsall (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Walsall attack 1.78 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barrow scores more
24%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
51%

Walsall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
A. AdomahWalsallWalsall · F
8.9

Match Events

33'
A. Adomah
45'
M. Hancock↳ C. Lakin
46'
E. Newby← B. Jackson
55'
C. Mahoney← B. Whitfield
67'
Joseph Anderson
68'
M. Hancock
72'
C. Raglan← A. MacDonald
73'
K. Hemmings← D. Rose
73'
C. Clarke← J. Okeke
78'
J. Malcolm← I. Fletcher
82'
A. Pressley← D. Kanu
82'
A. Loupalo-Bi← A. Adomah
88'
J. Malcolm↳ K. Hemmings
89'
V. Harper← B. Comley
90'
H. Burke← P. Farquharson

Possession

56%Barrow

Shots

10Barrow

Pass accuracy

52%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowWalsall
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots18
1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.82
5Corners3
8Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots18
2On Target12
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
8Inside Box13
2Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
406Total Passes332
274Accurate Passes203
67%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
9Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides5

League Two: Barrow 1–3 Walsall

Walsall beat Barrow 3-1 in League Two on April 18, 2026.

Goals: A. Adomah (33'), M. Hancock (45', 68'), J. Malcolm (88').

Barrow controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Holker Street in Barrow in Furness.