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Walsall vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
G. Miller 62', 4'
J. Gordon 90+6'
G. Williams 36'
10/23/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Walsall46%
×Draw26%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.46
Barrow
1.07

Walsall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Barrow
0.87

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Barrow
1.91

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
72%
Walsall or Barrow
74%
Draw or Barrow
54%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
23%
Barrow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
77%
Walsall 2+ goals
43%
Walsall 3+ goals
18%
Barrow 1+ goals
66%
Barrow 2+ goals
29%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
62%
Barrow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barrow attack 0.87 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more
46%
level
26%
Barrow scores more
28%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. MillerWalsallWalsall · F
8.7

Match Events

4'
G. Miller
24'
Ollie Banks
29'
Joe Grayson
32'
Patrick Brough
36'
G. Williams↳ R. Hutton
53'
Jordan Stevens
62'
G. Miller↳ H. White
63'
Josh Kay
63'
T. Shade← K. Phillips
69'
T. White← G. Williams
76'
L. James← J. Stevens
87'
S. Perry← E. Osadebe
90+3'
George Miller
90+2'
Hayden White
90+6'
J. Gordon↳ P. Brough

Possession

37%Walsall

Shots

17Walsall

Pass accuracy

48%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallBarrow
Overview
37%Possession63%
17Total Shots10
1Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots10
11On Target5
5Off Target0
1Blocked5
11Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
326Total Passes569
251Accurate Passes470
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves9
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 2–2 Barrow

Walsall and Barrow drew 2-2 in League Two on October 23, 2021.

Goals: G. Miller (4', 62'), G. Williams (36'), J. Gordon (90+6').

Barrow controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.