Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Walsall vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
J. Kay 87'
3/12/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Walsall46%
×Draw26%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.46
Barrow
1.07

Walsall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Barrow
0.87

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Barrow
1.91

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
72%
Walsall or Barrow
74%
Draw or Barrow
54%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
23%
Barrow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
77%
Walsall 2+ goals
43%
Walsall 3+ goals
18%
Barrow 1+ goals
66%
Barrow 2+ goals
29%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
62%
Barrow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barrow attack 0.87 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more
46%
level
26%
Barrow scores more
28%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. DaviesBarrowBarrow · D
7.7

Match Events

29'
Dan Scarr
44'
N. Eardley← B. Barry
45'
Emmanuel Osadebe
56'
C. Norman← D. Scarr
58'
W. McDonald← E. Osadebe
59'
D. Osei Yaw← J. Gordon
68'
B. Thomas← J. Jones
80'
Mat Sadler
83'
O. Banks← J. Devitt
83'
J. Kay← L. James
87'
J. Kay↳ S. Quigley
90'
Scott Quigley

Possession

56%Walsall

Shots

4Walsall

Pass accuracy

53%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallBarrow
Overview
56%Possession44%
4Total Shots7
3Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots7
1On Target4
2Off Target0
1Blocked3
1Inside Box6
3Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
397Total Passes299
273Accurate Passes181
69%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Barrow

Barrow beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on March 12, 2021.

Goals: J. Kay (87').

Walsall controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 7.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.