Walsall 0–5 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Aston Villa

A. Borland 69'

L. Lynch 67'

B. Madjo 44', 24'

G. Hemmings 42'

7/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Walsall4%

×Draw12%

Aston Villa83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.45

2.63

Walsall

0.45

Aston Villa

2.63

Aston Villa creates 484% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.33

creates per match

2.43

2.83

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Walsall

0.33

Aston Villa

2.43

allows per match

Walsall

2.83

Aston Villa

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–216%

0–314%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

17%

Walsall or Aston Villa

88%

Draw or Aston Villa

96%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

1%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

36%

Walsall 2+ goals

8%

Walsall 3+ goals

1%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

93%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

73%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

5%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 0.33 + Aston Villa defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.45

Aston Villa attack 2.43 + Walsall defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Walsall scores more

4%

level

12%

Aston Villa scores more

83%

Aston Villa at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

42'

44'

54'

61'

H. Burke← R. Leak

61'

T. Sodje← A. Dallas

64'

S. Iling Junior← M. Cisse

67'

L. Lynch

69'

A. Borland

70'

A. Pattison← A. Pattison

70'

C. Clarke← I. Moore

70'

E. Ahui← M. Hancock

70'

V. Harper← R. Browne

81'

A. Pressley← A. Pressley

81'

D. Skura← D. Skura

81'

W. Etheridge← S. Sprangler

82'

J. Jimoh-Aloba← B. Broggio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff