Wals-Grünau 2–1 Röthis: Result & Stats

Wals-Grünau

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Röthis

3/16/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 17Hans-Ludwig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Wals-Grünau51%

×Draw21%

Röthis27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wals-GrünauExpected goals in this matchRöthis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.46

Wals-Grünau

2.07

Röthis

1.46

Wals-Grünau creates 42% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 67 away

1.87

creates per match

1.45

1.46

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Wals-Grünau

1.87

Röthis

1.45

allows per match

Wals-Grünau

1.46

Röthis

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wals-Grünau+0.00on par

Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wals-Grünau ↓

Röthis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wals-Grünau or draw

73%

Wals-Grünau or Röthis

79%

Draw or Röthis

49%

Winning margin

Wals-Grünau wins by 2+

30%

Röthis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wals-Grünau 1+ goals

87%

Wals-Grünau 2+ goals

61%

Wals-Grünau 3+ goals

34%

Röthis 1+ goals

77%

Röthis 2+ goals

43%

Röthis 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wals-Grünau (draw refunded)

65%

Röthis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wals-Grünau at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Röthis away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wals-Grünau attack 1.87 + Röthis defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.07

Röthis attack 1.45 + Wals-Grünau defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wals-Grünau scores more

51%

level

21%

Röthis scores more

27%

Wals-Grünau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wals-Grünau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff