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Wals-Grünau vs Langenegg — Regionalliga - West 2018

Wals-Grünau
Wals-Grünau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Langenegg
Langenegg
8/4/2018Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 2Hans-Ludwig-Stadion (Wals)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Wals-Grünau59%
×Draw19%
Langenegg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wals-Grünau
2.46
Langenegg
1.46

Wals-Grünau creates 68% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Wals-Grünau
1.87
Langenegg
1.46

allows per match

Wals-Grünau
1.46
Langenegg
3.04

finishing

Wals-Grünau+0.00on par
Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wals-Grünau ↓

Langenegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Wals-Grünau or draw
78%
Wals-Grünau or Langenegg
81%
Draw or Langenegg
41%

Winning margin

Wals-Grünau wins by 2+
38%
Langenegg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wals-Grünau 1+ goals
91%
Wals-Grünau 2+ goals
70%
Wals-Grünau 3+ goals
44%
Langenegg 1+ goals
77%
Langenegg 2+ goals
43%
Langenegg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wals-Grünau (draw refunded)
73%
Langenegg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wals-Grünau at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wals-Grünau attack 1.87 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.46

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Wals-Grünau defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wals-Grünau scores more
59%
level
19%
Langenegg scores more
22%

Wals-Grünau at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wals-Grünau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Wals-Grünau 2–0 Langenegg

Wals-Grünau beat Langenegg 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Hans-Ludwig-Stadion (Wals).