Wally Daan 1–0 Jamono Fatick: Result & Stats

Wally Daan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jamono Fatick

4/13/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wally Daan42%

×Draw33%

Jamono Fatick25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wally DaanExpected goals in this matchJamono Fatick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.70

Wally Daan

1.02

Jamono Fatick

0.70

Wally Daan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

0.83

creates per match

0.79

0.60

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Wally Daan

0.83

Jamono Fatick

0.79

allows per match

Wally Daan

0.60

Jamono Fatick

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wally Daan+0.00on par

Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wally Daan ↓

Jamono Fatick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Wally Daan or draw

75%

Wally Daan or Jamono Fatick

67%

Draw or Jamono Fatick

58%

Winning margin

Wally Daan wins by 2+

17%

Jamono Fatick wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wally Daan 1+ goals

64%

Wally Daan 2+ goals

27%

Wally Daan 3+ goals

8%

Jamono Fatick 1+ goals

50%

Jamono Fatick 2+ goals

16%

Jamono Fatick 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wally Daan (draw refunded)

63%

Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wally Daan at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wally Daan attack 0.83 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Wally Daan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wally Daan scores more

42%

level

33%

Jamono Fatick scores more

25%

Wally Daan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wally Daan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff