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Wallsend Red Devils vs South Cardiff — NNSW League 1 2026

Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
South Cardiff
South Cardiff
4/26/2026NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wallsend Red Devils35%
×Draw21%
South Cardiff44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallsend Red Devils
1.77
South Cardiff
2.00

South Cardiff creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Wallsend Red Devils
1.96
South Cardiff
1.25

allows per match

Wallsend Red Devils
2.75
South Cardiff
1.57

finishing

Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par
South Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallsend Red Devils ↓

South Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Wallsend Red Devils or draw
56%
Wallsend Red Devils or South Cardiff
79%
Draw or South Cardiff
65%

Winning margin

Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
18%
South Cardiff wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
83%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
53%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
26%
South Cardiff 1+ goals
86%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
59%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
44%
South Cardiff (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallsend Red Devils at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

South Cardiff away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.96 + South Cardiff defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

South Cardiff attack 1.25 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wallsend Red Devils scores more
35%
level
21%
South Cardiff scores more
44%

South Cardiff at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "South Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Wallsend Red Devils 1–2 South Cardiff

South Cardiff beat Wallsend Red Devils 2-1 in NNSW League 1 on April 26, 2026.