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Wallsend Red Devils vs Cessnock City Hornets — NNSW League 1 2026

Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
4/13/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 5Ladbrokes Gardens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wallsend Red Devils40%
×Draw21%
Cessnock City Hornets40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallsend Red Devils
2.08
Cessnock City Hornets
2.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Wallsend Red Devils
1.96
Cessnock City Hornets
1.39

allows per match

Wallsend Red Devils
2.75
Cessnock City Hornets
2.21

finishing

Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par
Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallsend Red Devils ↓

Cessnock City Hornets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Wallsend Red Devils or draw
60%
Wallsend Red Devils or Cessnock City Hornets
79%
Draw or Cessnock City Hornets
60%

Winning margin

Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
22%
Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
87%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
61%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
34%
Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
87%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
61%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
50%
Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallsend Red Devils at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

Cessnock City Hornets away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.96 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.39 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wallsend Red Devils scores more
40%
level
21%
Cessnock City Hornets scores more
40%

Wallsend Red Devils at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wallsend Red Devils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wallsend Red Devils vs Cessnock City Hornets

Wallsend Red Devils beat Cessnock City Hornets 1-0 in NNSW League 1 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Ladbrokes Gardens in Newcastle.