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Wallidan vs Bombada — GFA League 2020

Wallidan
Wallidan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bombada
Bombada
12/15/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wallidan40%
×Draw30%
Bombada30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallidan
1.15
Bombada
0.94

Wallidan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wallidan
1.00
Bombada
0.89

allows per match

Wallidan
0.98
Bombada
1.29

finishing

Wallidan+0.00on par
Bombada+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallidan ↓

Bombada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wallidan or draw
70%
Wallidan or Bombada
70%
Draw or Bombada
60%

Winning margin

Wallidan wins by 2+
17%
Bombada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wallidan 1+ goals
68%
Wallidan 2+ goals
32%
Wallidan 3+ goals
11%
Bombada 1+ goals
61%
Bombada 2+ goals
24%
Bombada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wallidan (draw refunded)
58%
Bombada (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallidan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 58 matches

Bombada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallidan attack 1.00 + Bombada defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bombada attack 0.89 + Wallidan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wallidan scores more
40%
level
30%
Bombada scores more
30%

Wallidan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wallidan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Wallidan 0–0 Bombada

Wallidan and Bombada drew 0-0 in GFA League on December 15, 2023.