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Wallidan vs Banjul — GFA League 2020

Wallidan
Wallidan
FT
2 – 1
Banjul
Banjul
4/22/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Wallidan38%
×Draw32%
Banjul30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallidan
1.02
Banjul
0.86

Wallidan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 73 away

creates per match

Wallidan
1.00
Banjul
0.75

allows per match

Wallidan
0.98
Banjul
1.04

finishing

Wallidan+0.00on par
Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallidan ↓

Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wallidan or draw
70%
Wallidan or Banjul
68%
Draw or Banjul
62%

Winning margin

Wallidan wins by 2+
15%
Banjul wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wallidan 1+ goals
64%
Wallidan 2+ goals
27%
Wallidan 3+ goals
8%
Banjul 1+ goals
58%
Banjul 2+ goals
21%
Banjul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wallidan (draw refunded)
56%
Banjul (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallidan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 58 matches

Banjul away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallidan attack 1.00 + Banjul defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Banjul attack 0.75 + Wallidan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wallidan scores more
38%
level
32%
Banjul scores more
30%

Wallidan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wallidan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wallidan vs Banjul

Wallidan beat Banjul 2-1 in GFA League on April 22, 2022.