Wallern / Marienkirchen 2–1 Gleisdorf 09

Wallern / Marienkirchen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gleisdorf 09

11/3/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen48%

×Draw22%

Gleisdorf 0930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wallern / MarienkirchenExpected goals in this matchGleisdorf 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.52

Wallern / Marienkirchen

1.98

Gleisdorf 09

1.52

Wallern / Marienkirchen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

2.36

creates per match

1.54

1.51

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen

2.36

Gleisdorf 09

1.54

allows per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen

1.51

Gleisdorf 09

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallern / Marienkirchen ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wallern / Marienkirchen or draw

70%

Wallern / Marienkirchen or Gleisdorf 09

78%

Draw or Gleisdorf 09

52%

Winning margin

Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+

27%

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals

86%

Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals

59%

Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals

31%

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

78%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

45%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)

62%

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallern / Marienkirchen at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 2.36 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more

48%

level

22%

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

30%

Wallern / Marienkirchen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wallern / Marienkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff