Gleisdorf 09 1–1 Wallern / Marienkirchen

Gleisdorf 09

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wallern / Marienkirchen

3/13/2026

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gleisdorf 0943%

×Draw23%

Wallern / Marienkirchen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gleisdorf 09Expected goals in this matchWallern / Marienkirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Gleisdorf 09

1.73

Wallern / Marienkirchen

1.50

Gleisdorf 09 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

1.27

1.73

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.69

Wallern / Marienkirchen

1.27

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.73

Wallern / Marienkirchen

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Wallern / Marienkirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw

66%

Gleisdorf 09 or Wallern / Marienkirchen

77%

Draw or Wallern / Marienkirchen

57%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

23%

Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

82%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

52%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

25%

Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals

78%

Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals

44%

Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

56%

Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 1.27 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

43%

level

23%

Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more

34%

Gleisdorf 09 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff