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Wallern / Marienkirchen vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wallern / Marienkirchen
Wallern / Marienkirchen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
3/29/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 20Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen50%
×Draw22%
ASK Klagenfurt29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallern / Marienkirchen
2.04
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

Wallern / Marienkirchen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

creates per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen
2.36
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.51
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallern / Marienkirchen ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wallern / Marienkirchen or draw
71%
Wallern / Marienkirchen or ASK Klagenfurt
78%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
50%

Winning margin

Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+
29%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals
87%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals
60%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals
33%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
78%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
45%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)
63%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallern / Marienkirchen at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 2.36 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more
50%
level
22%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
29%

Wallern / Marienkirchen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wallern / Marienkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wallern / Marienkirchen vs ASK Klagenfurt

Wallern / Marienkirchen beat ASK Klagenfurt 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.