Wales W 0–1 Scotland W: Result & Stats

Wales W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Scotland W

E. Cuthbert 59'

6/15/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Parc y Scarlets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wales W27%

×Draw26%

Scotland W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales WExpected goals in this matchScotland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.45

Wales W

1.05

Scotland W

1.45

Scotland W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

1.29

1.60

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Wales W

1.40

Scotland W

1.29

allows per match

Wales W

1.60

Scotland W

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales W+0.00on par

Scotland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales W ↓

Scotland W →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wales W or draw

54%

Wales W or Scotland W

74%

Draw or Scotland W

73%

Winning margin

Wales W wins by 2+

10%

Scotland W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wales W 1+ goals

65%

Wales W 2+ goals

28%

Wales W 3+ goals

Scotland W 1+ goals

77%

Scotland W 2+ goals

42%

Scotland W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wales W (draw refunded)

37%

Scotland W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wales W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Scotland W away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wales W attack 1.40 + Scotland W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Scotland W attack 1.29 + Wales W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wales W scores more

27%

level

26%

Scotland W scores more

46%

Scotland W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Scotland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

R. Mclauchlan← C. Grimshaw

59'

66'

70'

75'

77'

77'

O. Clarke← L. OSullivan

90+1'

F. Morgan← K. Green

90+2'

C. Murray← E. Cuthbert

Wales

Scotland

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Grainger

66'▲E. Morgan←▼J. Green

77'▲G. Walters←▼C. Jones

77'▲O. Clarke←▼L. OSullivan

90+1'▲F. Morgan←▼K. Green

Wales W substitutes

17Morgan22Walters12Clarke23Morgan15Hughes19Francis-Jones21Soper2Filbey7Williams16Estcourt

Manager: S. McLaren

57'▲R. Mclauchlan←▼C. Grimshaw

75'▲L. Arnot←▼F. Brown

90+2'▲C. Murray←▼E. Cuthbert

Scotland W substitutes

3Mclauchlan23Arnot16Murray19Clelland17Docherty14Arthur12Cumings20Hanson13Eddie6Robertson15Howard21Fife

Match Recap: Wales W vs Scotland W

Scotland W beat Wales W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on June 15, 2021.

Goals: E. Cuthbert (59').

The match was played at Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli.

Wales W vs Scotland W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wales W vs Scotland W