Wales W 6–1 Montenegro W: Result & Stats

Wales W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Montenegro W

M. Griffiths 78', 17'

H. Cain 35', 6'

S. Ingle 31'

R. Rowe 15'

A. Kuc 51'

3/7/2026

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 2Parc y Scarlets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wales W93%

×Draw5%

Montenegro W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales WExpected goals in this matchMontenegro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.83

0.83

Wales W

4.83

Montenegro W

0.83

Wales W creates 482% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

4.33

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

5.33

creates per match

Wales W

4.33

Montenegro W

1.00

allows per match

Wales W

0.67

Montenegro W

5.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales W+0.00on par

Montenegro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales W ↓

Montenegro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Wales W or draw

98%

Wales W or Montenegro W

95%

Draw or Montenegro W

7%

Winning margin

Wales W wins by 2+

82%

Montenegro W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Wales W 1+ goals

99%

Wales W 2+ goals

94%

Wales W 3+ goals

82%

Montenegro W 1+ goals

56%

Montenegro W 2+ goals

20%

Montenegro W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wales W (draw refunded)

97%

Montenegro W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales W at home — creates 4.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Montenegro W away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales W attack 4.33 + Montenegro W defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.83

Montenegro W attack 1.00 + Wales W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Wales W scores more

93%

level

5%

Montenegro W scores more

2%

Wales W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Wales W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

H. Cain↳ C. Holland

15'

R. Rowe↳ H. Cain

17'

M. Griffiths

31'

S. Ingle↳ L. Woodham

35'

H. Cain↳ R. Rowe

39'

R. Roberts

39'

M. Saranovic← H. Bozic

46'

L. Joel← R. Rowe

46'

F. Morgan← L. Woodham

51'

A. Kuc↳ J. Djokovic

65'

N. Stanovic← S. Bulatovic

67'

A. James-Turner← S. Ingle

67'

M. McAteer← H. Cain

78'

M. Griffiths↳ C. Jones

83'

A. Popovic← J. Djokovic

83'

K. Cadenovic← A. Janjusevic

84'

G. Evans← C. Holland

Wales

Montenegro

1

Kalac

10

Karlicic

7

▼

Bulatovic

17

Djukic

15

▼

Bozic

8

A

▼

Djokovic

5

Licina

21

▼

Janjusevi

22

Tomasevic

9

Desic

11

⚽

21

5

14

6

7

A

▼

Holland

20

A

Jones

4

⚽

▼

Ingle

2

A

▼

Woodham

10

⚽2

Griffiths

13

⚽A

▼

Rowe

11

⚽2A

▼

Cain

Manager: Rhian Wilkinson

46'▲L. Joel←▼R. Rowe

46'▲F. Morgan←▼L. Woodham

67'▲A. James-Turner←▼S. Ingle

67'▲M. McAteer←▼H. Cain

84'▲G. Evans←▼C. Holland

Wales W substitutes

1Kelly12Soper3Evans8James-Turner9Hughes15McAteer16Estcourt17Joel18Morgan19Powell22Zimmerman23Morgan

Manager: M. Marić

39'▲M. Saranovic←▼H. Bozic

65'▲N. Stanovic←▼S. Bulatovic

83'▲A. Popovic←▼J. Djokovic

83'▲K. Cadenovic←▼A. Janjusevic

Montenegro W substitutes

12Krstovic13Kalac2Malesija3Popovic4Saranovic6Petrovic14Saric16Cadenovic18Simonovic19Stanovic20Durdevac23Osmajic