Wales 1–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Wales

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Switzerland

K. Moore 74'

B. Embolo 49'

6/12/2021

Euro Championship · Group A - 1Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wales36%

×Draw28%

Switzerland36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalesExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Wales

1.15

Switzerland

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

1.14

1.17

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Wales

1.17

Switzerland

1.14

allows per match

Wales

1.17

Switzerland

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wales or draw

64%

Wales or Switzerland

72%

Draw or Switzerland

64%

Winning margin

Wales wins by 2+

15%

Switzerland wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wales 1+ goals

68%

Wales 2+ goals

32%

Wales 3+ goals

11%

Switzerland 1+ goals

68%

Switzerland 2+ goals

32%

Switzerland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wales (draw refunded)

50%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales attack 1.17 + Switzerland defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Wales defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wales scores more

36%

level

28%

Switzerland scores more

36%

Wales at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Breel Embolo

Switzerland · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

F. Schar

47'

K. Moore

49'

B. Embolo↳ X. Shaqiri

63'

K. Mbabu

66'

D. Zakaria← X. Shaqiri

74'

K. Moore↳ J. Morrell

75'

D. Brooks← D. James

84'

M. Gavranović← H. Seferović

90+3'

E. Ampadu← A. Ramsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalesSwitzerland

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots18

4Corners12

6Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots18

2On Target4

1Off Target7

6Blocked7

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

284Total Passes518

232Accurate Passes457

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4