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Wales vs Rep. Of Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Wales
Wales
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
Connor Roberts 55'
Aaron Ramsey 37'
Gareth Bale 18'
Tom Lawrence 6'
Shaun Williams 66'
9/6/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 1Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wales59%
×Draw24%
Rep. Of Ireland18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales
1.71
Rep. Of Ireland
0.81

Wales creates 111% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Wales
1.60
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Wales
0.90
Rep. Of Ireland
1.82

finishing

Wales+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wales or draw
82%
Wales or Rep. Of Ireland
76%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
41%

Winning margin

Wales wins by 2+
33%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wales 1+ goals
82%
Wales 2+ goals
51%
Wales 3+ goals
24%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
56%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
19%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wales (draw refunded)
77%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales attack 1.60 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Wales defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wales scores more
59%
level
24%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
18%

Wales at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Tom Lawrence↳ Joe Allen
18'
Gareth Bale↳ Ben Davies
37'
Aaron Ramsey↳ Ethan Ampadu
51'
Ciaran Clark
55'
Connor Roberts↳ Gareth Bale
56'
Shaun Williams← Conor Hourihane
61'
Enda Stevens← Stephen Ward
66'
Shaun Williams
67'
Matthew Smith← Ethan Ampadu
74'
Tyler Roberts← Gareth Bale
77'
Daryl Horgan← Callum Robinson
81'
Paul Dummett← Ben Davies

Possession

67%Wales

Shots

12Wales

Statistics

WalesRep.
Overview
67%Possession33%
12Total Shots5
4Corners3
16Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots5
8On Target3
4Off Target2
Passing
67%Possession33%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides4

UEFA Nations League: Wales 4–1 Rep. Of Ireland

Wales beat Rep. Of Ireland 4-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 6, 2018.

Goals: Tom Lawrence (6'), Gareth Bale (18'), Aaron Ramsey (37'), Connor Roberts (55'), Shaun Williams (66').

Wales controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.