Wales 1–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

Wales

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northern Ireland

S. Thomas 46'

J. Donley 22'

3/31/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalCardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wales40%

×Draw30%

Northern Ireland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalesExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Wales

1.15

Northern Ireland

0.96

Wales creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

0.70

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wales

0.70

Northern Ireland

1.13

allows per match

Wales

0.80

Northern Ireland

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wales or draw

70%

Wales or Northern Ireland

70%

Draw or Northern Ireland

60%

Winning margin

Wales wins by 2+

17%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wales 1+ goals

68%

Wales 2+ goals

32%

Wales 3+ goals

11%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

62%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

25%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wales (draw refunded)

57%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales attack 0.70 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Wales defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wales scores more

40%

level

30%

Northern Ireland scores more

30%

Wales at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Darlow

Wales · G

7.7

Match Events

22'

J. Donley

38'

D. Brooks

46'

D. Lawlor← B. Cabango

46'

D. James← J. Colwill

46'

P. Charles← C. Hazard

46'

G. Saville← S. Charles

46'

C. Marshall← I. Price

46'

S. Thomas

61'

E. Galbraith

64'

N. Broadhead← L. Koumas

64'

B. Spencer← C. Brown

64'

B. Lyons← P. Kelly

64'

J. Reid← J. Donley

71'

E. Ampadu←

71'

B. Johnson← S. Thomas

80'

T. Atcheson← E. Galbraith

80'

P. Smyth← T. Devlin

88'

R. Norrington-Davies← J. Dasilva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalesNorthern

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots10

5Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked3

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

659Total Passes324

582Accurate Passes244

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Friendlies: Wales 1–1 Northern Ireland

Wales and Northern Ireland drew 1-1 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

Goals: J. Donley (22'), S. Thomas (46').

Wales controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.

Wales vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Wales 1–1 Northern Ireland