Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wales vs Austria — Friendlies 2026

Wales
Wales
CANC
00:00
Austria
Austria
3/27/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wales20%
×Draw31%
Austria49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales
0.64
Austria
1.19

Austria creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wales
0.70
Austria
1.57

allows per match

Wales
0.80
Austria
0.57

finishing

Wales+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wales or draw
51%
Wales or Austria
69%
Draw or Austria
80%

Winning margin

Wales wins by 2+
5%
Austria wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wales 1+ goals
47%
Wales 2+ goals
14%
Wales 3+ goals
3%
Austria 1+ goals
70%
Austria 2+ goals
33%
Austria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wales (draw refunded)
29%
Austria (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Austria away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales attack 0.70 + Austria defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Austria attack 1.57 + Wales defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wales scores more
20%
level
31%
Austria scores more
49%

Austria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wales face Austria (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Wales hosting Austria. Match starts March 27, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wales host Austria at Liberty Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.