Wuhan Zall 0–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Wuhan Zall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

3/31/2018

League One · Round 3Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuhan Zall59%

×Draw23%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchHeilongjiang Lava Spring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.90

Wuhan Zall

1.83

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

0.90

Wuhan Zall creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

2.27

creates per match

1.12

0.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

2.27

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.12

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

0.67

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

82%

Wuhan Zall or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

77%

Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

41%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

34%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

84%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

54%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

28%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

59%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

23%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

77%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

59%

level

23%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

18%

Wuhan Zall at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff